Groups like March for our Lives and the Brady PAC are mobilizing to defeat senators who oppose gun control legislation in the aftermath of two mass shootings that have shaken the country.
The focus on shaping gun control legislation comes after two separate shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, last weekend resulted in more than 30 people dead.
Gun control groups already mobilized in 2018, outspending the National Rifle Association for the first time to help Democrats took over the House.
Democrats then followed up by passing anti-gun legislation. But that legislation has stalled in the Senate where Republicans have a 53-47 advantage, giving urgency to the push by activists to target senators who have opposed stronger gun control laws.
The chief focus for these groups this time around will be defeating senators in battleground states, mainly Republican Sens. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerGun control group releases ad asking McConnell for background checks vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump vows federal response to Ohio, Texas shootings ‘Medicare for All’ complicates Democrats’ pitch to retake Senate MORE (Colo.), Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisBusinesses, farmers brace for new phase in Trump trade war The 23 Republicans who opposed Trump-backed budget deal Graham threat to bust panel rules roils Senate tensions MORE (N.C.), Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyThe Hill’s Morning Report – Trump vows federal response to Ohio, Texas shootings ‘Medicare for All’ complicates Democrats’ pitch to retake Senate Senate committee advances nomination of general accused of sexual assault MORE (Ariz.), and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsMcConnell: Gun background checks will be ‘front and center’ in Senate debate Graham promises ObamaCare repeal if Trump, Republicans win in 2020 GOP senators press Google on reports it developed a smart speaker with Huawei MORE (Maine), and Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstBusinesses, farmers brace for new phase in Trump trade war Overnight Energy: Trump EPA looks to change air pollution permit process | GOP senators propose easing Obama water rule | Green group sues EPA over lead dust rules Pair of GOP senators propose easing Obama water rule MORE (Iowa).
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellWarren unveils plan to combat gun violence Blaming Trump for ‘trigger’ words pours more fuel on the age of rage Five proposals Congress is eyeing after mass shootings MORE (Ky.) will also be in focus as he faces a challenger in Amy McGrath who has slammed the senator over his record on gun control after the two mass shootings.
Like in 2018, the groups are likely to ramp up spending, including with attack ads, in the lead-up to the 2020 Senate races, while organizing town halls and voter registration of young voters.
“As far as the Senate, we’re setting up town halls in several states, including Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, and several others, and we’re going to be inviting both candidates just to ask them about their stances on the issues that we care about, and making sure that they’re held accountable for stances that they’ve taken in the past,” Charlie Mirksy, the co-founder and political director of March for Our Lives, told The Hill.
March for Our Lives, which was launched by students in the wake of the Parkland shooting in 2018, is also focusing their strategy in large part, on bringing young people into the political fold to advocate for gun control.
“We’re also going to be doing extensive voter registration in all of these Senate states, and of course, we’re going to be focused on the House races as well, but especially in these key Senate states that are so close, and some of these states that are turning from red to purple or blue to purple,” Mirksy added.
Republicans being targeted by gun control activists have generally received high marks from the NRA. Gardner and Ernst received an “A” rating from the NRA in their last Senate races in 2014, while Tillis had an “A+” rating.
They have also received heavy financial backing from pro-gun groups. McSally, for example, ranked ranked 22nd in Congress on receiving NRA and NRA political action committee money.
Collins has had a more moderate stance, having signaled support for a number of gun control efforts, including a red flag plan and closing background check loopholes, but a group of more liberal Democratic challengers are fighting to take her on next year.
Democratic campaigns and groups have also signaled they plan to zero in on McConnell for not reconvening the Senate during the August recess to take up the House-passed background check legislation.
“I think McConnell is going to be a big issue in the race,” a Democratic strategist told The Hill. “As much as it’s about gun safety, it’s also about the fact that these senators aren’t willing to be independent from their party leaders in DC, and McConnell, in particular is the one person blocking legislation.”
Already, gun control advocacy group Giffords on Friday released a pair of advertisements pressing McConnell and Gardner to vote on background checks legislation for gun purchases.
Polls show Americans generally support taking some action on gun control, including supporting an assault weapons ban.
A Morning Consult/Politico poll released on Wednesday found that seven in ten respondents said they were in favor of an assault weapons ban. That number also included 54 percent of Republicans saying they were in favor an assault weapons ban.
“Public opinion is on our side. There’s a lot of data out there now showing that voters, even independents, even Republicans want action on this issue,” the Democratic strategist said. “I think that’s why you see Republicans starting to crack and acknowledge that they need to support something.”
McConnell signaled to Kentucky radio station WHAS on Thursday that he and Trump are eager to take action to address gun violence when the chamber reconvenes in September after its current recess.
McConnell said in the same interview that red flag laws, background checks, and an assault weapons ban would all be part of the discussion.
President TrumpDonald John TrumpThe inadvertent cyber wisdom of Donald J. Trump Is the film ‘The Hunt’ a misfire or a direct hit in our left-right divide? Warren unveils plan to combat gun violence MORE later called for “intelligent background checks” on gun purchases, while expressing confidence that Congress would come together to take action.
Still, defeating these incumbent Republican senators will not be easy given the gun lobby is expected to go all out in efforts to get the GOP not to change course.
The NRA tweeted on Thursday that it is “not enough anymore to simply say that ‘we need more background checks,” and its chief executive Wayne LaPierre reportedly told President Trump a background check bill would not be popular among his supporters.
The NRA has faced internal turmoil this year, but it is nonetheless gearing up for 2020 as it aims to keep the Senate under GOP hands.
“The NRA is fully committed to electing pro-gun candidates across the board in the 2020 elections. We will engage our members and supporters to ensure that the U.S. Senate remains under the control of those who support our Second Amendment freedoms,” Andrew Arulanandam, managing director of NRA Public Affairs said told The Hill in a statement.
But gun control advocates, along with supportive PACs will likely have financial muscle after outspending the NRA and its allies in 2018.
In 2018, the Brady PAC spent nearly $500,000, Everytown spent $30 million in support of candidates at the state and federal level, and Giffords PAC spent nearly $7 million. The NRA’s spending was estimated at $20 million.
“The NRA is weaker than it’s ever been in its history. The gun violence prevention movement is stronger than its ever been so they go into 2020 really with their hands tied behind their backs,” Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, the grass-roots arm of Everytown for Gun Safety, told The Hill in an interview in July.
And gun control activists believe they have momentum on their side, hoping to see a repeat of 2018 when the House turned blue, including through the victory of gun control advocate Rep. Lucy McBathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathDemocratic leaders seek to have it both ways on impeachment Big Tech has big credibility gap GOP polling: Impeachment unpopular in swing districts MORE (D) in a suburban Georgia district.
“We saw what happens with the gun violence prevention movement really focuses together on an issue in 2018 with the historic election of the gun violence prevention majority in the House,” Kris Brown, president of Brady, said.
“In 2018, a big part of that success was the fact that gun violence prevention was very much on people’s mind when they went to the ballot box.”